Oil Spills: Winners and Losers

 

WTI Crude Oil Trailing 6-mo Price Performance." WTI Crude Oil (Jan'15). CNBC, n.d. Web. 05 Dec. 2014.

Summary: Oil prices have plummeted in recent weeks. There are many reasons why the downward pressure in prices is unlikely to stop anytime soon. The oil producers will likely be able to weather the storm, but will have to curb aggressive growth expectations. There are winners as well as losers, and investors should consider adding exposure to companies that benefit from lower gas prices.

                

OPEC made headlines on Thanksgiving Day by refraining from cutting oil production, despite the price of Brent Crude oil declining over 30% year to date and over 25% in the fourth quarter alone. There are various reasons for this drop in prices, most notably rising oil production (especially in North America), decelerating global economic growth, a plateauing of demand for oil in China, and the multi-year trend towards increasing energy efficiency. Increased production and the move towards energy efficiency are long-term trends that will likely continue to keep downward pressure on the oil market.

The investment impact has been dramatic this quarter. The stocks of oil exploration and production, service, and equipment companies have slumped along with the price of oil. Seemingly any company with exposure to the booming oil production conditions in the U.S. has sold off as well. Investors are calculating that lower oil prices will curb growth in the oil producers. While the sharp reaction in oil prices may overshoot to the downside, a prolonged period of lower than $85 per barrel is not out of the question. This will temper the aggressive expansion in oil production in the U.S. but will not severely damage the industry. Existing wells will continue to pump oil profitably, but companies will likely delay or cancel new well projects if oil prices stay low. Many oil companies’ profit expectations are contingent on the creation of new wells and thus will be lowered. Investors should be wary of exposure to the industry for the next several months. Those who want to maintain long-term exposure should look to well-capitalized industry leaders with global assets. The price of oil will fully recover to over $100 per barrel once global growth picks back up, or suppliers cut production levels enough that prices rise.

On the other hand, there are companies that have received a stock price boost from lower oil prices. Companies in industries where fuel is a major cost (such as airlines and trucking) should post better than expected profits. Additionally, lower gas prices act similarly to a tax cut and put dollars directly into consumers’ pockets. This may well spur discretionary spending and make for a strong holiday shopping season for retailers. Investors should consider increasing exposure to companies that benefit from lower oil prices.

Marietta Welcomes Jim Rauh

Marietta Investment Partners is pleased to announce that James M. Rauh has joined the firm as a senior advisor.

Jim has extensive knowledge of and experience in wealth management and held senior executive positions with leading investment firms including Northern Trust and Robert W. Baird & Co. Throughout his career, Jim has provided valuable counsel to high-net worth individuals and their families, and has led teams delivering investment management, retirement, philanthropic and estate planning strategies.

In his role as Executive Vice President of Northern Trust, Jim led the Advisory Services group of the company’s Wealth Management division, with national responsibility for services to business owners, families and individuals in the areas of financial planning, investment strategies, family education & governance, and planning for future generations. Before taking on national responsibilities, Jim established Northern Trust’s Milwaukee office and served as the Midwestern States’ regional chief investment officer.

Prior to Northern Trust, Jim was a member of the Management Committee of Johnson Financial Group, a bank holding company owned by the Samuel C. Johnson family, and President of Johnson Asset Management and Johnson Trust Company. Before that, Jim was Senior Vice President and Director of Robert W. Baird & Co., where he was a member of the Management Committee and Investment Policy Committee.

Jim is a director of the Centers for Transfusion and Transplant Medicine, BloodCenter of Wisconsin, and City Year Milwaukee. He is a member of the University of Wisconsin Department of Economics Advisory Board, Milwaukee Art Museum’s President’s Circle, and a former director of Northern Trust Bank fsb, Northern Trust Global Advisors, Northern Trust Securities, Inc. and Robert W. Baird & Co. He earned a BA degree in Economics from the University of Wisconsin – Madison.

Said founder and managing partner, John Evans, "Jim’s vast experience with investment markets and the financial services industry will strengthen Marietta for years to come."

All Eyes on the Fed

Now that the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program is coming to an end, the focus of financial markets is shifting quickly to the Fed’s policy in 2015. Members of the Fed have already announced their intention to raise short term interest rates as soon as they are convinced the economy has achieved sufficient strength and momentum to weather such a rate hike. A lively debate has begun within and outside the Fed as to when the interest rate normalization process should commence, how aggressively it will proceed, and what impact this will have on the U.S. economy and financial markets.

What is at stake is the continuation of the five year economic expansion and stock bull market. Pessimists argue that early and aggressive rate increases would break the U.S. economy, possibly foment a recession, and cause a significant stock market retreat. Other Fed watchers are concerned with the opposite outcome; the Fed will proceed too slowly and cautiously, thereby permitting a buildup of inflation and the formation of asset bubbles. Optimists, on the other hand, have confidence that the Fed can lift rates gradually to a long-term norm without disrupting the economy and the stock market. Marietta falls into the latter camp in our response to the key questions of the debate:

1. When do we expect the Fed to begin raising rates?

Members of the Fed itself disagree on an appropriate start date. Kansas City Fed President Esther George has stated that the U.S. economy is already strong enough to withstand higher interest rates. Conversely, Charles Evans, Chicago Fed President, thinks that economic conditions will not be suitable until at least 2017. The key viewpoint will almost surely be that of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who has expressed that a probable date would be six months following the end of tapering, but with the assumption that the economy would continue to strengthen into 2015. We consider April 2015 to be the most probable start date. This is based on our six month forecast for GDP of approximately 3%, inflation below 2%, and unemployment below 6%. During this period we expect a growing consensus within the Fed supporting Chair Yellen’s prediction that economic circumstances would justify taking action at that time.

2. How aggressive do we expect the Fed to be in implementing rate increases? 

We expect that economic growth will be strong enough and inflation sufficiently tame to support a gradual increase in the Federal Funds Rate to about 1% by the end of 2015. This prediction assumes that the Fed will want to be cautious and, if necessary, err on the side of being too slow rather than being too aggressive. We consider Chair Yellen to be especially dovish. This pace would also be consistent with precedent: in each of the last three rate raising periods following recession and accommodative low rates (1984, 1994, 2004), the Fed started with a .25% rate raise and proceeded cautiously.

3. What is the likely consequence for the U.S. bond market?

We expect the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise from its current 2.5% yield to 3% or slightly above by the end of 2015. This modest rise would be consistent with the two most recent periods (1994, 2004) when prior Fed policy normalizations started. We think such an increase in the benchmark yield would be consistent with approximately 3% GDP growth and the perception that the Fed was proceeding with caution. Nevertheless, this rise in yields would probably result in a slightly negative total return from now through 2015 for many bond mutual funds.

4. What is the outlook for the U.S. stock market? 

From now until April 2015, as the debate over Fed policy becomes more feverish, market volatility will probably increase. We think the market will hold and possibly advance into year-end based on continued strength in the economy and corporate profits. Further, investors will be reluctant to take gains, and performance oriented hedge funds will feel pressure to achieve competitive performance. A correction, however, becomes more likely in early 2015. As the first rate hike approaches, anxiety could cause market weakness. In subsequent months, additional rate hikes could intensify economic uncertainty and exacerbate a market downturn. Nevertheless, we think that by the end of 2015 the market will recover and hit new highs as it becomes increasingly apparent that the economy has not been damaged and corporate profits continue to rise.

A historical perspective supports our outlook. J.P. Morgan has examined the last six Fed policy normalizations and has drawn attention to two observations. The first is that there was a clear market weakness averaging -4% over the three to four months following the first rate increase.  The second is that in five of the six occasions, the stock market made a new cyclical high within twelve months. We agree with their conclusion that “any potential dip due to policy uncertainty should be bought into.”

Although some investors will greet the next phase of the economic cycle with apprehension, we consider a normalization of rates to be healthy. We emphasize that our views are based on certain assumptions, one of which is an absence of a surprise geopolitical development that significantly alters economic and market forecasts. We consequently think that it is especially important to remain vigilant and flexible in what could well prove to be challenging conditions ahead.

2Q Earnings Season Results

In its July 3 Outlook, the Marietta Investment Team identified six fundamentals that historically have supported stock markets and continue to buttress the current bull market. One of the most important of these is healthy corporate earnings prospects. Because the market has approached what we consider the high end of fair value, a sustainable advance in equity markets should be accompanied by an increase in corporate profits. With the second quarter earnings season nearing an end, Deutsche Bank noted in a research piece on Aug. 25 that S&P 500 aggregate earnings surged 7.9% to a new record high. Excluding financial companies, the gain was an even more impressive 12.4%. Along with these healthy profit gains, companies also grew sales 4.7%, the most in 2 years, and expanded net margins 1.3% to a new all-time high. In the beginning of the year, Marietta’s Investment Team projected 7-9% growth in 2014 corporate profits which led us to forecast an equivalent 7-9% advance in the S&P 500 Index. Corporate profits are on track to reach or exceed this projection.

Earlier this week, the S&P 500 Index surpassed 2000 for the first time ever. The Index has advanced over 8% so far in 2014, in large part due to these strong profits. Wall Street analysts remain optimistic: Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices, reports that Wall Street analyst consensus estimates project a rise in corporate earnings of 11.9% for the year. We are carefully tracking the economy and profit margins to verify that these favorable forecasts are reasonable. If they are, a further advance in the market would be warranted.

Journal Sentinel Features Marietta Portfolio Manager

Marietta’s investment strategy often relies on broad economic themes that will push growth in specific regions, sectors, and industries. We explore stocks which will benefit from these trends and invest in the companies that have demonstrated an ability to consistently execute their business plans and grow earnings. Associate Portfolio Manager Robert Draper shared one of these themes that we are excited about with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Kathleen Gallagher this past Sunday. To read the article, please follow the link below:

Investment Trends: Local money manager says smart technology will open market opportunities

The Positive Case for the U.S. Stock Market Revisited

We remain optimistic regarding prospects for the U.S. market, but with a more elevated level of caution.

Coming into the year, we forecasted 2014 U.S. GDP growth of about 3%, which we expected to result in Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) corporate profit growth of 7-9%. In a fairly valued but not overvalued market, we projected further that this profit growth would result in a corresponding 7-9% gain for the S&P 500 Index in 2014 (see Marietta's Jan. 3 Outlook).

Since the beginning of the year:

• The U.S. economy suffered from a weather-impacted -1.0% first quarter GDP setback, which has reduced the consensus (and our) 2014 GDP growth estimate to 2.4% ("The Economist" June 14, 2014).
• The underperformance of the U.S. economy year-to-date has lowered corporate profit estimates for 2014.
• Despite reduced 2014 economic growth and profit expectations, the S&P 500 Index has advanced 7.1% through June 23.
• The fully-valued stock market is stretched further with corporate profit estimates coming down and the market moving up. Howard Silverblatt, S&P 500 Senior Index Analyst, reports that the consensus of Wall Street analysts estimate the forward P/E ratio of S&P 500 operating earnings to be 16.1x versus a 10-year historic average of 14.8x. Bloomberg (June 12) adds that 70% of S&P 500 stocks currently sport forward year P/E's above this 10-year average, raising concerns for the market's valuation.

We emphasize that there are many other factors influencing the market in addition to corporate profit gains and valuation. Among the offsetting positives are:

•  The economy is rebounding from the first quarter downturn, as reflected in strong employment gains and healthy Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMI) for both manufacturing and services. The result could be a surprising boost in corporate earnings.
• The Federal Reserve remains highly accommodative, further supporting the economy and financial markets.
• Although 2014 profit estimates have been coming down, first quarter earnings were not as bad as the negative economic growth would suggest, and research analysts remain highly optimistic for the year as a whole. Deutsche Bank reports that although first quarter GDP was negative, S&P profits actually gained 5% (June 6 "U.S. Equity Insights"). During this difficult first quarter, 335 (67.3%) of S&P 500 companies beat Wall Street expectations. For all of 2014, Silverblatt notes that "bottom-up" consensus analyst profit growth estimates for the S&P 500 Index remains a lofty +11.5%. We remain comfortable that our +7-9% projections for both profit gains and market gains will be matched or exceeded.
• With regard to valuation, we observe that the market's P/E ratio historically has been higher in periods of low inflation and interest rates. Strategas research informs us that since 1950, the average P/E ratio in periods with 0-2% inflation is 17.9x, whereas 4-6% inflation is associated with an average P/E of 14.7x. This diminishes the concern that the market is currently unsustainably overvalued. Indeed, there is also the distinct possibility that there could be more market multiple expansion reflecting a continuation of 2013 trends.
• Corporations are still sitting on a mountain of cash, which is being used to fund M&A activity, dividend increases, and stock buybacks, all of which elevate the overall market.
• Stocks remain highly attractive relative to low- or zero-yielding money market and bond competitors. The Investment Company Institute (ICI) report for April shows $2.573 trillion on the sideline in money market funds that could help fuel a further stock market advance.

Our conclusion is that the positive case for stocks is still intact, but the rising valuation of the market increases its vulnerability to an economic or geopolitical surprise. Investors will need to be cautious and flexible.

Bond Fund Buyers Beware

Proposed Bond Fund Fee Highlights the Unappreciated Risk in Bond Mutual Funds

Readers of the Financial Times were confronted yesterday with a front-page article headlined, "Fed Fears Over Bond Fund Run." According to the article, the Federal Reserve, increasingly concerned about the vulnerability of the bond market, particularly bond mutual funds, is considering an unprecedented move to impose exit fees on bond fund owners looking to redeem their shares.

The Financial Times highlights the problem facing the Federal Reserve:
 

“Officials fear that bond funds are becoming ‘shadow banks’, because investors can withdraw their money on demand, even though the assets held by the funds can be hard to sell in a crisis.”

“. . . U.S. retail investors have pumped more than $1 trillion into bond funds since early 2009. This has created a boom for fixed-income money managers, but raises the prospect of a massive disorganized flight of money should interest rates rise sharply.”

The goal of the proposed fees is to discourage this mass exodus from the bond market and prevent a bursting of the bond bubble. This is an important acknowledgement of the significant risk that should have been apparent to investors who parked assets in bond funds for their perceived safety. We think the Fed's fears regarding bond mutual funds, a favorite investment of many wealth management firms looking to safeguard clients' "sleep-at-night money," are warranted.

It is important to note the distinction between bond mutual funds and actual individual bonds. Mutual funds that invest in bonds, even the safest bonds, carry a risk that owners of individual bonds avoid. Under normal circumstances, if an investor in the bond fund wants to sell, the manager can use the money from a new investor to pay to seller without selling the underlying bond. However, when there are more sellers than buyers, the fund is forced to sell the bonds to make up the difference. Bond investors are accustomed to the two main risks in this sector: the bond may default and the value may decline if interest rates rise. But a run on bond funds is a particularly acute problem for those invested in them. The bond fund market has ballooned to over $10 trillion with an increasing proportion of those assets from retail investors. A sharp rise in interest rates, which many economists and financial commentators consider a matter of when rather than if, could trigger a panic and a rush of bond fund investors looking to sell. If this run on bond funds happens, fund managers will have to sell, potentially at steep losses, and fund investors will find that the value of their investments was far less secure than they thought. Unlike bond funds though, limiting fixed-income investments to individual bonds, which Marietta advises for clients, gives investors the option to hold the bond to maturity and receive the bond's par value. Bond mutual funds never mature and during a run its investors are left to the mercy of the market.

While the Fed is concerned about the effect such a sharp rate rise will have on the broader economy, its targeting of bond mutual funds should serve as a warning to bond fund investors. Bond mutual funds carry unique risk in a time of historic, artificially inflated bond prices. Wealth managers who view these investments as secure based on the quality of the bonds in the fund ignore, to the detriment of their clients, the market risk inherent in these investments. Marietta aims to protect clients against the traditional risks of bonds by holding short maturity, high-quality bonds, and we have consistently advised against holding bond funds rather than actual bonds because of the potential illiquidity of the fund shares. That the central bank is even considering such an extraordinary control over the bond fund market reinforces our conviction that bond mutual funds expose investors to heightened and inappropriate risks, especially those investors looking to reduce risk by investing in bonds.

Emerging Economy Stocks Rebounding

12 months iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) vs. S&P 500 Index. Source: Yahoo! Finance, May 29, 2014.

Emerging economy stocks as a group are booming. In the week of May 21, emerging market stocks attracted another $1 billion of inflows even as U.S. equity funds saw withdrawals of $10.9 billion. This data comes from EPFR, a company that tracks the flow of money into and out of world stock markets. The firm adds that this weekly addition marks the seventh week of net inflows in the past two months. From February 3 through May 23, the iShares MSCI ETF for emerging markets (EEM) has soared 16.2% whereas the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has risen 9.1%. Leading the emerging markets higher has been India, where the expectation of favorable national elections propelled its market to a gain of 32.2% during this period. The popular ETF for Brazil (EWZ) rocketed 25.8%. The question for investors is whether these emerging markets will continue to advance and to also outpace U.S. stocks.

This surge in emerging markets has surprised many investors due to the widespread assumption that the Federal Reserve's "tapering" policy, now in its sixth month, would damage emerging markets. This view goes back to the announcement on May 22, 2013 by then Chairman Bernanke that an expected pickup in the U.S. economy would permit the Fed to wind down its policy of purchasing $85 billion of bonds per month, which had been designed to put downward pressure on long-term rates and support the mortgage market.

Bernanke's statement had an immediate and dramatic impact: U.S. bond yields rose and the dollar strengthened against many emerging currencies. This in turn led to fears that currency, inflation, and interest rates would rise, economic growth would slow, capital outflows would increase, and equity markets would decline in some key emerging countries. In the month following Bernanke's remarks the EEM plunged 14% whereas the S&P 5900 Index declined only 4.7%. Conditions continued to deteriorate during the summer, which in late August prompted Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to warn the Fed to be highly sensitive when initiating its tapering policy to a possible adverse reaction within emerging countries.

At this point, the EEM has managed to recoup all of the losses incurred since Bernanke's speech a year ago, yet the EEM's gain of 1.2% trails the 15.1% advance of the S&P 500 Index over the last twelve months. It seems obvious that the Fed's tapering policy, on its own, is no longer sufficient to cripple emerging markets. On the other hand, it appears that it is when tapering combines with other developments to drive the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and the dollar up, as was the case in mid-2013, that there is a negative causal impact on emerging markets. Since February 3, the opposite has happened. The yield on the 10-year Treasuries has fallen slightly from 2.58% to 2.53%. Also, the net asset value of the PIMCO Emerging Markets Currency Fund (PLMIX) has risen from 9.87 to 10.37, a gain of 5.1%.

The Marietta economic outlook includes a probable rise in the 10-year Treasury yield as the U.S. economy continues to strengthen in the second half of the year. If this occurs, and is accompanied by a rise in the dollar vs. emerging currencies, there will likely be a sterner test for emerging stock markets. This would especially apply to those countries with a recent history of inflation and currency woes (India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, et al.). On the other hand, from a fundamental perspective, a stronger U.S. economy and rising U.S. stock market may well be viewed as a positive for emerging markets in that it will increase investor confidence in the global economic growth scenario and boost their willingness to invest in the perceived higher risk associated with emerging markets. This is what happened in the booming markets from 2003 through 2007.

Our conclusion is that it is appropriate for investors to increase modestly their exposure to emerging country stocks in the currently more favorable conditions. If the U.S. economy strengthens and longer term interest rates rise, as we expect, and key emerging market stocks continue to rise, then a larger commitment is justified. An important caveat: not all emerging economies will react similarly to propitious conditions. China, for example, has a unique set of conditions such that Federal Reserve policy changes and interest rate fluctuations will likely have a reduced impact on its more insulated economy and markets. We recommend countries which are expected to experience an improved mix of accelerating GDP, stable or rising currencies, stable and preferably declining inflation and interest rates, and a growth-oriented government and central bank.

Marietta Supports Make A Difference-Wisconsin

Make A Difference-Wisconsin hosted its 6th annual Investment Conference yesterday (May 15th) at Milwaukee's Hyatt Regency hotel. Marietta was proud to support the event as a Community Sponsor.

 

The conference brought together over 600 guests and featured a panel of four investment professionals, including keynote speaker David Einhorn (Milwaukee native and notable hedge fund manager), who shared investment recommendations and industry insights. Brenda Campbell, executive director of Make A Difference-Wisconsin, also provided a report on the organization's latest achievements and developments.

Make A Difference-Wisconsin is a non-profit 501(c)3 organization dedicated to providing financial literacy programs and resources that empower students to make sound financial decisions. Funds raised from the event allow Make A Difference-Wisconsin to mobilize a volunteer force of over 500 financial industry professionals who provide in-school financial education to thousands of Wisconsin high school students. In addition to sponsoring the event, two of Marietta's own - Robert Draper and Jonathan Smucker - are among these volunteers delivering the Make A Difference-Wisconsin program to local classrooms.

Marietta applauds the efforts and success of Make A Difference-Wisconsin. For more information, visit Make A Difference-Wisconsin on the web at www.makeadifferencewisconsin.org.

Federal Reserve Supports Marietta's Positive Outlook for U.S. Economy and Stock Market

On March 21, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee reiterated its positive year-end forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2014 and 2015. In a subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that weak U.S. economic data in January and February was due primarily to bad weather and would pick up in coming months. She emphasized that "the Committee's views are largely unchanged" since December and confirmed the Fed's prior prediction of 2.8-3.0% GDP growth and 1.5-1.6% inflation in 2014. With this promising outlook, the Fed expects to continue its tapering policy to completion in September. It will proceed to raise its base short-term interest rate after a pause if inflation and employment data continue favorably.

Marietta's January 3 Outlook emphasized the importance of economic acceleration and corporate profit growth in extending the 5-year bull market through 2014. The 29.6% surge in the S&P 500 index in 2013 was driven in part by a 10.8% increase in S&P 500 corporate earnings but even more by an increase in the market's P/E valuation. This "multiple expansion" has resulted in a rise in the Index's current P/E ratio on trailing 12-month earnings to 16.5, which is above the last 10-year average of 14.7 We consider the market to be fully valued rather than overvalued, but we think a further advance should be fueled by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. Hence, our bullish view relies on our favorable 2014 forecast of 3.0% GDP growth and a rise of 7-9% in corporate earnings.

We are encouraged by the 4th quarter corporate earnings reports released during the 1st quarter. According to Howard Silverblatt at Standard & Poor's, 64% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings above Wall Street estimates and an additional 11% met expectations. He also indicates that company research analysts are currently estimating an increase of 12.1% in aggregate operating profits for all of 2014. Assuming the S&P 500's P/E valuation remains constant through 2014, this increase in profits would reward investors with another year of double-digit returns. We think this scenario is reasonable because the market's valuation multiple is unlikely to contract as long as the expected return on money-market funds and bond alternatives remain unattractive.

A concern for some investors is that the Fed's statement is actually negative for the stock market because it hastens the date of an increase in historically low 0-0.25% short-term interest rates. We are not persuaded. The Fed has clearly indicated that it will not raise rates until it is convinced that economic growth has achieved healthy, sustainable growth, which in turn will increase investor confidence in further profit growth. Our view is that investors will not become excessively alarmed as long as inflation and interest rates remain below long-term norms of 2% and 4% respectively.

Mary Allmon Elevated To Portfolio Manager

We are delighted to announce the elevation of Mary Allmon to the position of Portfolio Manager.

Mary, 31, joined Marietta in 2005. She received her B.S. degree from Marquette University and, over the past 8 years, has made a significant contribution to our firm and clients. Most recently, she focused on international economies and financial markets in her role as Senior Research Analyst. Her considerable experience in developing customized portfolios and servicing clients will strengthen Marietta in the years to come.

IMF Forecasts Accelerating Global Economic Growth in 2014 and 2015

On January 21, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a positive update on its World Economic Outlook. In a press conference, Olivier Blanchard (Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department) stated the report had three main messages:

• The global economic recovery is strengthening, with accelerating growth in both the developed and emerging economies (see infographic below):

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update: Is the Tide Rising?, January 2014 

• This increase in growth was anticipated. The drag from fiscal consolidation is diminishing; the financial system is slowly healing; uncertainty is decreasing.
• The economic recovery remains relatively weak and uneven, and risks are evident.

For the U.S., the IMF projects a rise in GDP from 1.9% in 2013 to 2.8% in 2014. Blanchard commented:

“U.S. growth appears to us to be increasingly solid. Private demand is strong. As a result of the December budget agreement, fiscal consolidation, which weighted on growth negatively in 2013, will be more limited in 2014.”

The IMF update is good news to global stock market investors. We pointed out in our October 1 and January 1 Outlooks that the world's stock markets rose every year this century when global GDP growth accelerated. We note that Marietta's forecast for 2014 global growth is 4.1% and for U.S. growth is 3.0%, and thus we think the IMF is still too conservative and will raise further estimates as the year progresses.

What is the Problem with Hedge Funds?

2013 was a miserable year for hedge fund relative performance. Bloomberg reports that only 16 large funds (those with assets over $1 billion) surpassed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as of October 31. Among the more popular approaches (asset backed, credit arbitrage, distressed, long/short equity, long-biased equity, merger arbitrage, equity statistical arbitrage), none provided an average return through October 31 of more than 11% (the S&P 500 had already surged 23.2% by this point).      

For the entire year, hedge funds on average reported a modest 7.4%, which paled in comparison to the 32.4% total return of the S&P 500 Index. These results are surprising. Despite vast intellectual resources, cutting edge technological capabilities, and headline-grabbing media exposure, hedge fund managers have saddled clients with mediocre or worse returns. 2012 was also a dismal year for hedge funds: an average return of 6.2% trailed a 15.9% gain by the S&P 500. The last time hedge funds outperformed the Index as a group was 2008. 

The persistent underperformance of hedge funds is in stark contrast to their continued popularity. Hedge fund clients poured in a net $71 billion as of the end of November, and, by the end of 2013 assets under management had risen to $2.01 trillion.

So, there are two perplexing issues. In addition to the relative underperformance surprise, there is the question of why investors still think hedge funds are such a promising investment. Compounding the paradox is that hedge fund clients pay hefty annual fees typically 2% to 3% of assets under management plus 20% of any returns. On the other hand, most investment advisory firms charge annual fees of roughly 1% of assets under management with no performance fees.